Wales v Argentina preview: Warren Gatland’s troops to come out on top in tense Rugby World Cup quarter-final

David Skippers
Wales v Argentina preview image RWC 2023.jpg

Wales flyer Louis Rees-Zammit and his counterpart Mateo Carreras of Argentina.

The weekend’s knockout action at the Rugby World Cup gets underway in Marseille on Saturday when Wales and Argentina face off in their highly anticipated quarter-final.

This will be a battle of two sides with contrasting styles with Wales employing a highly successful defensive system while Argentina are relying on an expansive game-plan in which they place a high emphasis on attacking play.

This weekend’s encounter will be the first time these countries meet in a World Cup match since 1999, and Warren Gatland‘s troops will start as favourites after collecting 19 points from a possible 20 in their pool.

These sides head into this clash without the services of an outstanding back-rower apiece in Wales’ Taulupe Faletau and Argentina‘s Pablo Matera – who have both been ruled out the World Cup due to injury – and the side who adapt best to the absence of their star should come out on top.

The Welsh deservedly finished at the top of Pool C after notching deserved bonus-point victories over Fiji, Portugal and Georgia and although they failed to secure another bonus-point win against Australia, they put the two-time Rugby World Cup winners to the sword with a 40-6 triumph which was their biggest ever margin of victory over the Wallabies.

Meanwhile, there was plenty of optimism about Argentina’s chances ahead of the World Cup but they did not produce the goods in their tournament opener against England and suffered a 27-10 defeat. However, Michael Cheika‘s charges soon got their campaign on track and sealed consecutive wins against Samoa, Chile and Japan to finish in second position in Pool D – four points adrift of table-toppers England.

That means we’re set for a mouth-watering showdown as both these teams head into this clash with valuable momentum. Ahead of this fixture, a big talking point is the scrum success of the two sides with Wales being the leading the way with 98%, which is the best of all the quarter-finalists while surprisingly Argentina have the worst (80%).

Where Los Pumas have made their presence felt, however, is in ruck speed which at 3.37 seconds is the best return of the remaining eight teams left in the competition while Wales are in last position in that category 5.11 seconds.

Those statistics sets the scene for what should be a fascinating battle which should keep us entertained throughout and whoever comes out on top will have to play out of their skins to secure the result.

Where the game will be won

The forward exchanges will have a big impact on the end result while discipline will also be crucial but what could prove to be decisive is the battle at the breakdown.

Wales have shown their intent by selecting three loose forwards who are adept in that department – in their captain Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell and Aaron Wainwright – while Argentina will be without the services of star back-row Matera, who usually shines in that department.

That puts plenty of pressure on Argentina’s back-rowers, who will have to come to the party, although their loose trio of Facundo Isa, Marcos Kremer and Juan Martin Gonzalez are no slouches when contesting for loose balls and we expect a battle royal in this facet of play.

Last time they met

What they said

Wales boss Gatland is preparing his troops for a tough duel and expects Argentina to come at them with a huge effort.

“They bring that South American mentality, they are very passionate and that is why they have won big games against top teams in the past in the southern hemisphere,” he said.

“They don’t give up, they stay in the fight. They are a really tough team to break down and beat, and it is going to be a big challenge for us.”

Meanwhile, Los Pumas assistant coach Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe knows that his team will have to be at their best to get the better of Wales.

“All games are now finals,” he said. “It’s a game of pressure, we’ll have to do all simple things well. Wales is going to come to try and do their thing, exert that pressure on to us.

“They are very identified with Warren Gatland’s philosophy of putting pressure to the opposition and being a combative team.

“But if it had been another team, it would be the same thing, doing simple things well with as much consistency as possible.”

Players to watch

Wales have been boosted by the return to the starting line-up of star fly-half Dan Biggar after he started their previous match against Georgia on the replacements bench. Biggar was initially ruled out of that match due to a chest injury sustained in Wales win over Australia but came onto the bench when Gareth Anscombe was a late withdrawal due to a groin issue. Biggar’s experience and calmness under pressure will prove crucial in a match of this magnitude and he should have a big say in this fixture end result.

Also keep an eye on Wales flanker and captain Jac Morgan, who is has quickly cemented himself as the team’s leader with an excellent all-round skill-set. Although he only made his international debut last year and is just 22 years old, Morgan plays with a maturity beyond his years which has already earned him comparisons with former Wales stalwarts Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric. Morgan’s all-action style of play and superb leadership makes him a real asset for his team and he will be in the thick of the action from the outset.

Meanwhile, veteran full-back Liam Williams will also be amongst the protagonists for Wales on Saturday as he is sure to lead several attacks from the back which will keep Los Pumas’ defence on their toes. The 32-year-old sustained a knee injury against Georgia but has been declared fit for the Argentina’s clash and he will have a big say in this fixture’s outcome.

The loss of Matera means Facundo Isa comes into Argentina’s starting XV at number eight while Juan Martin Gonzalez shifts into Matera’s spot on the flank. Isa will be expected to put the South Americans on the front foot with his superb ball carrying ability but apart from that, the Toulon star is also solid at the breakdowns and he will also be hoping to make a big impact in that department. While the loss of Matera is a huge blow for Los Pumas, Isa’s elevation to the run-on side gives him a chance to make a name for himself in a high pressure game and hopefully he lives up to the expectations.

Another player who is crucial to Los Pumas’ cause is Emiliano Boffelli, who is renowned as one of the world’s best goal-kickers although he has hardly set the Rugby World Cup alight. The 28-year-old is currently in eighth position in the points-scoring charts with just 35 points amassed from his three matches played at the tournament and Argentina fans will be hoping for a huge points haul from him in this fixture.

Meanwhile, head coach Cheika has sprung a surprise by elevating veteran scrum-half Tomas Cubelli to the starting line-up at the expense of Gonzalo Bertranou, who drops out of the matchday 23, with Lautaro Bazan Velez preferred as the back-up number nine. Cubelli has an impressive passing range and will be determined to provide a slick service to his outside backs while his decision-making will also be crucial in the bigger scheme of things.

Main head-to-head

All eyes will be on the battle between two of the game’s best young flyers in Wales’ Louis Rees-Zammit and Argentina’s Mateo Carreras, who have both caught the eye with some outstanding attacking performances for their respective nations during the pool phase of the tournament. It’s hardly surprising that the Rees-Zammit is amongst the leading try-scorers at the Rugby World Cup with five tries scored so far – just one adrift of France’s Damian Penaud, who is the top try-scorer so far – while Carreras is not far behind after crossing the whitewash on three occasions.

All Carreras’ tries were scored in their final pool match against Japan while Rees-Zammit matched that achievement by also notching a hat-trick in Wales last match of the group stage, against Georgia. Prior to that, he also dotted down against Fiji and Portugal but he will have to work hard against Carreras, who apart from his try-scoring prowess is also solid in defence. Both players are blessed with plenty of speed which should make for an entertaining duel.

Prediction

It really is difficult to predict the outcome of this encounter as we expect it to be a closely fought battle between two evenly matched sides and don’t be surprised if this match goes beyond 80 minutes. Both teams will be brimming with confidence after finishing off their respective campaigns in the pool phase with solid wins. This match should go down to the wire but Wales will win it by two points.

Previous results

2022: Wales won 20-13 in Cardiff
2021: Argentina won 33-11 in Cardiff
2021: The teams drew 20-20 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 30-12 in Resistencia
2018: Wales won 23-10 in San Juan
2016: Wales won 24-20 in Cardiff
2013: Wales won 40-6 in Cardiff
2012: Argentina won 26-12 in Cardiff

The teams

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Jac Morgan (c), 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Dafydd Jenkins, 20 Christ Tshiunza, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Rio Dyer

Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gómez Kodela, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Agustín Creevy, 17 Joel Sclavi, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Rodrigo Bruni, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Matías Moroni

Date: Saturday, October 14
Venue: Stade de Marseille
Kick-off: 17:00 local (16:00 BST, 15:00 GMT)
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

READ MORE: Argentina change two for Wales quarter-final after Pablo Matera ruled out

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