Topsy Ojo’s Premiership predictions: Top two to fall as Saracens become new leaders

James While 29 Mar 2024 1:12 PM

Topsy Ojo gives his predictions for the upcoming Premiership round.

After a thrilling Round 14 of the Premiership that attracted record crowds and no less shocks in outcomes, Planet Rugby’s James While is joined by TNT Sports pundit and former London Irish and England wing Topsy Ojo to preview what promises to be another thundering round of domestic rugby.

We have teamed up with eToro, the official investing and trading partner of Premiership Rugby, to launch a new feature that will see us get predictions from a famous face before every Premiership round for the remainder of the season.

And just to make it a bit more fun, we’ll be making our own predictions for each game and tracking our performances week-by-week to see whether we can outsmart our illustrious guests.

Moving on to this week, Ojo previews the weekend’s action and provides his predictions.

Newcastle Falcons v Leicester Tigers

You never underestimate a Friday trip to Falcons especially when there’s a bit of weather about. They’re always able to challenge physically and this match will be no different. It’s all about the basics – set-piece platform, kicking and territory control and gainline power and although Falcons don’t quite have the stars that Tigers do, they spend a lot of time together as a team undisrupted through call-ups, which always gives them that advantage of continuity up front.

One for the fly-halves to own the scoreboard, for the packs to ensure there’s no easy outs from promising positions and one where I expect Tigers to respond to their loss at home next week.

Head-to-head: Brett Connon might not have the profile of his illustrious opponent, Handre Pollard, but he’s a high quality ten who knows how to get his team into positions where they hurt sides. The battle between these two will go a long way to deciding the result.

Players to watch: I’m hedging a little here and I’ll give you a second head-to-head – like Connon v Pollard, Callum Chick v Jasper Wiese is a classic battle of two great carriers. Both teams will be looking for 20+ incursions from their eights with ball in hand and I expect these two big units to go at each other all evening.

Topsy’s tip: It’s an arm-wrestle up in Newcastle with Tigers taking it away in last quarter – 27-10 or thereabouts.

Northampton Saints v Saracens

This is such a tough one to call and the match has everything you’d want in a Premiership fixture. First v third, contrasting styles, brilliant defences – it’s so close to predict, especially if Saints come out firing after a really disappointing trip to Bristol.

Both sides rely upon ruck speed as the central theme to their attack so that gainline battle is going to be absolutely key; had Alex Mitchell been available I might have erred on the side of Saints as he brings so much to their speed of thought and ball movement.

When you look at both starting XVs there’s so little to choose between them, but I do feel that Saracens have a big advantage on the bench which will prove telling as the match progresses. They have a Test quality front-row and some fantastic loose forwards that can simply change a game and in a match of tight margins, this is the key difference.

Head-to-head: I’m abdicating this a bit and I’m going to say it’s the back-rows against each other. Juan Martin Gonzalez is proving to be one of Sarries’ finest this season and any of my pals at London Irish will tell you the guy is an exceptional athlete. His battle with the evergreen Courtney Lawes will be one for the loose forward purists, but as these two almost cancel each other out, the outcomes will be decided by how the others go against each other.

Players to watch: For Saints, Tommy Freeman’s line incursions need to be at their most physical to get a hot start and some front-foot momentum. Sarries can unload both Theo Dan and Ben Earl off the bench – that’s another level of attacking power and Test quality that could prove decisive.

Topsy’s tip: Saints need the hottest of starts and real momentum to stay in this game, but I feel Sarries have too much in nous and game control and I reckon it’ll be close – 23-21 to Sarries going right down to the wire.

England stars earn starts as Northampton face red hot Saracens in Friday’s big game

Gloucester v Bristol Bears

Gloucester’s early-season form was quite perplexing as they kept losing games narrowly without playing badly, which for a coach is a hard place as you’re not quite sure what needs fixing. Since George Skivington returned from coaching England A, he’s looked far more confident and relaxed and that’s rubbing off on the way his team are playing.

And when you’ve taken out Leicester and Sale in your last two Premiership outings, the doubts start to go and belief replaces it. The key thing for me is that Gloucester have become far more efficient in their red zone work, finishing off the opportunities that they create.

Bristol are a hard team to predict; it’s often about their set-piece starting well and giving a platform for Harry Randall to get that wide passing game into gear. Both teams love tempo and that will be a feature of an exciting encounter.

Head-to-head: Since Caolan Englefield nailed down a starting slot for the Cherry and Whites, they’ve managed far more control from the base and his battle with Randall, a man in the form of his life, will be absolutely key.

Players to watch: Bristol’s skipper Fitz Harding has one of the best work-rates around and with AJ McGinty as pragmatic as ever in midfield both men will be key if Bristol are to win. For Gloucester, Jack Clement might not be their most famous back-row but he’s certainly been their most effective carrier and ruck expert this season.

Topsy’s tip: Provided Gloucester get set-piece parity, the Shed will drive them home in an attractive match but it will be close – 33-27 is my thinking.

Harlequins v Bath

Bath on the upslope against Quins on a wobble but with home advantage makes this another tough call with both teams desperate to ensure a top four placement.

This is all about how Harlequins respond to their drubbing last week – part of that is this weekend they have to start hot – we know they can make a try out of nothing and that with ball in hand they’re amazing, but controlling the game early doors is something that often eludes them.

Bath will go into the match with a laser focus on controlling the kicking battle. Now, against Quins this is a dangerous strategy if they’re off point and often that relies about the contest battle for ball recovery and efficient control of the drop zone. Both teams will crave set-piece dominance and the battle between Joe Marler and Thomas du Toit will be a massive one.

Head-to-head: Look no further than both pairs of half-backs and that kicking battle. Danny Care and Marcus Smith are both very happy getting the ball into the air, but Ben Spencer is probably the point of difference in the aerial game. Get it wrong though and Quins’ ability to attack from transition just might get them over the line in a tough match.

Players to watch: Quins’ new defensive rush is impressive and they have the best over the ball player on the park in Will Evans – if he gets stealing it could rob Bath of the control they crave. For Bath, Will Muir’s kick chase skills are key if the tactics go as I believe they well.

Topsy’s tip: I can’t see Quins going two bad performances on the bounce. If they start hot they’ve got the firepower to do this but it’ll be close – 29-28 to the hosts going right into the last moments.

Sale Sharks v Exeter Chiefs

Sale’s biggest issue this season is their lack of ability to consistently grab bonus points. Only Newcastle Falcons have less and it’s a symptom of their inability to win big that’s holding them back.

Chiefs have gone about their business quietly and under the radar. Massive in defence, a powerful rolling maul and real patience to get over the line when the opportunity presents itself are their hallmarks and this match will be no different. It’ll be big, bruising and confrontational and whoever wins that set-piece and gainline battle will take the match. Given their need to perform, I reckon Sale will have enough, but it’ll be an abrasive encounter.

Head-to-head: This will be the first time Luke Cowan-Dickie plays against his old club. His opponent, Dan Frost, is a spiky lad, full of explosive running in a Dan style. Their battle will be one for the front-row purists and I am sure nothing will be given by either.

Players to watch: Bevan Rodd gave Du Toit a real examination last weekend at the Rec. Rodd’s mobility and handling is world class and he’s fast improving as a scrummager at the age of only 23. For Chiefs, Joe Hawkins will need to be at his best as he goes up against a modern English great in Manu Tuilagi.

Topsy’s tip: If it goes to script then expect to see Sale grind out a win they really need. It won’t be pretty, it will all be about owning the scoreboard and nailing kicks, but I think they have enough to take it by 24-15.