Rugby World Cup stats: Unpacking which quarter-finalists have the edge

Dylan Coetzee
Split with Wales v Argentina, Ireland v New Zealand, England v Fiji, France v South Africa.

Split with Wales v Argentina, Ireland v New Zealand, England v Fiji, France v South Africa.

The Rugby World Cup has rolled on to the last eight with some intriguing matches lined up for the weekend where the stakes have certainly been raised.

It is knockout rugby time and Planet Rugby takes a closer look at which teams have the statistical edge.

Wales v Argentina

Wales were the first team to qualify for the knockouts across all the pools whilst Argentina left it late and earned their spot in their final match against Japan where it was winner takes-all.

Since Warren Gatland’s return Wales have really tightened up on their basics and set-piece which showed in the pool stage as they registered a 98% scrum success – a number better than any of the other quarter-finalists. Interestingly it was the opposite for Los Pumas who are historically a brilliant scrummaging side but only managed 80% success making this area of the game one of the focal points this weekend.

The scrum may not be firing for Argentina but their ruck speed certainly is at an average of 3.37 seconds – the fastest of teams still in the tournament. By comparison, Wales has a much slower average speed of 5.11s.

Feeding from that is Los Pumas’ impressive tally of defenders beaten 32.5 per game. That comes up against one of the best defences in the competition with Wales making a huge number of tackles including a record 252 against Fiji. They average 166.8 tackles per game, a whopping 42 tackles more than anyone else.

It could well be a game of pace against patience in the first quarter-final as the two teams fight for a spot in the last four.

Ireland v New Zealand

This is one of the most anticipated quarter-finals in this edition between two teams who have developed an intriguing modern rivalry over the last decade.

The All Blacks love ball in hand and it shows with the second-highest number of carries at 134.8 per game making the most metres at 752.5 with an average of 16 line breaks. Their ruck speed is slower than only Argentina’s whilst 14% of their plays are 30 metres or more from the ruck that started the phase indicating the three-time champions look to exploit the outside channels. Throw in the best line-out of the last eight at 98% and it makes for some powerful tools for Ian Foster’s men.

Whilst Ireland’s line-out is only 81% the rest of their game has been in tip-top shape particularly that multi-phase attack that has handed them 15.3 red zone entries per game – more than any other team. The side is also comfortable retaining possession and looking after the ball, only kicking 23.3 times in the game.

A key area where Ireland can leverage the game is at the breakdown where they average the highest turnovers with 5.3 and intertwined with that is their discipline where they concede less than 10 penalties per game on average.

The latest instalment of this rivalry is going to be extremely interesting with Ireland gunning for their first-ever semi-final whilst the All Blacks have been there and done that.

England v Fiji

This England side under Steve Borthwick may not be the most overly exciting team in the world but they certainly are effective. The Red Rose leads the way with kicks per game with 33.8 on average and is right down the carries list with 108.8 making only 461.3 metres.

Territory and set piece is the name of the game with a scrum operating at 95%. Points are points in playoffs and George Ford showed with his heroic performance against Argentina that it is possible to kick a team out of the game. England will want a slow, stop-start and very structured game against Fiji.

It’s a complete contrast for Fiji who top the carry charts with 139.5 and sit second for offloads at 11.3 per game making over 500 metres with ball in hand. One would expect the dynamic side to be ranked high up for line breaks but they are second last with 5 per game.

Where this particular Fiji side differs from previous teams is their ability to exploit the breakdown spearheaded by the outstanding Levani Botia. The Pacific side averages the most turnovers at 8 per game. In addition to this, the team has cleaned up their discipline at 8.8 penalties whilst their scrum is a rock at 92%.

Fiji beat England earlier this year and if the Pacific Islanders keep it clean and achieves parity at the set-piece it will make for a tight encounter.

France v South Africa

Two giants of the game collide in a brilliant match-up between hosts and holders for that all-important spot in the last four. It has been billed as a massive clash and some of the stats will be surprising, representing a complete flip around to what fans may be expecting.

Les Bleus lead the way in collision dominance in 48% of their carries compared to 38% from the Springboks. There is daylight between the two teams in the set piece with France notably more successful than South Africa with 94% in the scrum and 91% in the line-out compared to the 81% scrum success and 89% line-out completion of the defending champions.

Of the two sides, it is France who have kicked far more than South Africa with 30 per game – a whole 10 kicks on average more than the Springboks. However, where Les Bleus have succeeded on attack is in their continuity with the most offloads at 11.8 and over 10 linebreaks per game. Conversely, the Springboks have been clumsy with the ball conceding joint-most turnovers at 17 per game.

France also does not give away many penalties with only eight per game whilst South Africa have scored few points outside the 22 due to their kicking woes at just 1.5 per game from outside the red zone.

The stats paint a different picture of perception. France have the home advantage whilst on the other hand a large portion of the Springbok group experience glory in 2019 which will be extremely valuable in knockouts.

READ MORE: Rugby World Cup pool stage awards: Celebrating the best and worst of the tournament so far

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