Rugby World Cup: Stats heavily point towards one team ahead of historic final

Dylan Coetzee
All Black Beauden Barrett is tackled by Springbok Faf de Klerk.

All Black Beauden Barrett is tackled by Springbok Faf de Klerk.

The Rugby World Cup has just one more weekend left after almost two months of gripping action, as only the All Blacks and Springboks remain in the hunt for the William Webb Ellis Cup.

Last weekend’s semi-finals were very contrasting with one game a runaway win and the other a terribly tight affair decided late on.

Ahead of the final and the third-place play-off, Planet Rugby takes a closer at which areas of the game the remaining teams excel in.

Final – All Blacks v Springboks

New Zealand

The All Blacks lead the tournament in several key statistics which underline the strength of their attack. They have the best red-zone efficiency, averaging 3.89 points per 22 metre entry. This in conjunction with the third most entries on average at 12.7 per game and it’s clear why the side has been a points machine in France.

The team also have the most line-breaks per match with 13.5 whilst they are in the top three for total carries and second for metres made.

Their set-piece has been super efficient boasting the best line-out with 98% success including just two lost line-outs in the World Cup so far. Meanwhile, they have the second-best scrum statistically at 94%.

Interestingly the All Blacks average the second most kicks in play with 30.2 per game but also have the second-highest possession time with 18:26, meaning they kick to get the ball back rather than give it away.

Individually, Will Jordan leads the try-scoring charts after equalling the eight-try record held by Jonah Lomu, Bryan Habana and Julian Savea.

Whilst wing Mark Tele’a has beaten a competition high 31 defenders despite playing 149 minutes less than second-placed Bundee Aki.

South Africa

Despite being in the final the Springboks only lead two stats in dominant tackles per game at 14.3 and the least penalties conceded with two.

The holders have made a lot of errors with ball in hand with the second most turnovers conceded at 16.5, meaning that 40% of all their possessions ended with an error. This is an area they are above only Chile and Uruguay.

The numbers improve slightly in their red-zone efficiency with 2.79 but that is still some way off the leaders in that area. Their entries into the 22 metre are not ranked well either with 9.3 per game, a stat they rank ninth in.

Whilst a late scrum surge saved the game against England, the Springboks only have a success rate of 88%, a number that might surprise readers. They do make it up with very good discipline, only conceding 8.5 penalties on average.

Individually, Kwagga Smith has the most breakdown steals for his side with six and only one behind the tournament leader having only played 199 minutes.

It is worth noting when taking in these stats that by the end of the tournament South Africa would have faced every team in the top six of the World Rankings.

Bronze final – Argentina v England

Los Pumas

One of the strongest areas for the South Americans during the tournament is their rapid ruck speed at 3.31 seconds on average, which is ranked second behind Italy. Off the back of that Argentina has beaten the third-most defenders (29) at 6.3 line-breaks per game.

However, those areas cannot be effective when the Argentines concede so many penalties, with a whopping 4.3 on attack and 10.2 on defence.

The team struggled for gainline success and collision dominance against New Zealand which heavily impacted their red-zone efficiency at 0.67 in the semi-final compared to their 2.93 on a whole.

In terms of width, the side plays most of their rugby further than two metres from the ruck but not often more than 30m away, with the ball only reaching that width 6% of the time.

Their top try-scorer Mateo Carreras scored all his three tries in one game. He also leads the way with six line-breaks and 27 defenders beaten.

83% tackle success is a bit of a concern as head coach Michael Cheika would like that figure to be higher. One player who has been brilliant defensively is Marcos Kremer who is the leading tackler with 74 as well as the leading dominant tackler with seven.

Red Rose

England stuck to their kicking game and in the semi-final kicked a whopping 93% of their possession away, which played beautifully into the wet conditions as suggested by the second-highest possession split with 56%. This highlights that the Red Rose are trying to force teams to kick the ball back from areas they would rather not.

They average 11.2 entries into the red zone per game but only managed four against the Springboks last weekend. Possibly linked to this is their remarkably slow ruck speed of 5.1 seconds, probably due to setting up a box kick. However, the concern is that when the side needs to pick up the pace to rush their opposition they have been unable to.

England managed to avoid conceding a scrum penalty from their opener against Argentina all the way until the semi-final where they conceded four.

A concern could be the tackle success of 86% with just 7.8 dominant tackles. Similarly they have only 2.8 breakdown turnovers on average – a stat they rank 11th for.

Steve Borthwick’s side average 10.2 penalties conceded each game which is similar to Argentina but worse than both of the finalists.

Ben Earl is the obvious standout for his country leading the team in tackles (66), carries (54), metres made (416) and defenders beaten (20), highlighting the brilliant tournament he has had.

READ MORE: All Blacks or Springboks? Sergio Parisse and Chris Robshaw disagree on Rugby World Cup winner

Argentina