Ireland v Scotland preview: Hosts to emphatically claim title as part of St Patrick’s weekend festivities

Dylan Coetzee
Split with Ireland's Jack Crowley and Scotland's Finn Russell.

Split with Ireland's Jack Crowley and Scotland's Finn Russell.

Super Saturday in the Six Nations has finally arrived and with it comes a boatload of potential drama after a wild round four.

Both Ireland and Scotland were victims of the chaos that ensued last time out with Andy Farrell’s side being buried late on by a Marcus Smith drop-goal and Gregor Townsend’s team losing to the Azzurri in Rome.

The shock results in round four blew the competition wide open with four teams within mathematical reach of the title, although Ireland very much still have one hand on the title with only one point required to secure the Six Nations. That could be anything from losing within seven points to scoring four tries, drawing or winning.

For Scotland the equation is far more tricky as they need to beat Ireland by 39 points AND prevent them from getting any log points out of the game at all – which at the Aviva Stadium on St Patrick’s weekend would be some feat.

Farrell will be frustrated with last weekend’s loss and best believe Ireland are going to come out of the blocks very hot after a week of refocusing. Of course, Townsend’s Scotland will be wise to this and will do everything they can to rock the Irish boat.

All of this thrown together on Super Saturday in rugby’s greatest championship makes for stunning viewing.

Where the game will be won

Ireland failed to win the collision battle at times against England resulting in slower ball that ultimately blunted their attacking potency. That put pressure on Jack Crowley to make decisions which resulted in them kicking straight to England. They would have worked hard to ramp up their physicality this week as well as tighten up their disjointed set-piece.

Scotland will be taking notes from England’s performance and know they have to win the collision and pressurise the set-piece. The side will be hurt after their discipline cost them the game against Italy. They need to hit their straps as soon as possible because if the green machine finds its rhythm early in front of a Dublin crowd the point of no return will come quicker than they would like.

Last time they met

What they said

After Ireland’s loss to England there were whispers of an “anti-climax” in the title race, a school of thought Farrell quickly put to bed. He also reminded reporters that the crowd will be rocking on St Paddy’s weekend.

“Anti-climax? How many times have we won the Six Nations,” he told reporters. “Everyone would love to be our position, we’ve got to make sure we are loving that challenge as well.

“Paddy’s weekend again, a chance to win a Six Nations, it doesn’t get… well, it could of been a little better.

“But these things, the Grand Slams are unbelievably hard to come by. Six Nations are hard enough, as anyone would vouch for.”

Despite the loss against Italy, Scotland assistant Steve Tandy underlined the squad’s mental strength.

“We’ve shown moments of regathering ourselves, such as in Wales when we got that momentum back at the back end of the game to get the win,” he said.

“Against England we were 10-0 down after the disappointment of the previous game against France, where everyone said we should have won the game, so getting over that to beat England shows we’ve got the mental capacity to do those things.

“But it’s always a work in progress, there’s always space to learn and grow. These losses hurt and they make us ask questions around certain things, but at the end of the day we’ve got a huge game on Saturday so we can’t dwell on it for too long.

“We’re going to lose momentum in Ireland. No team goes there and dominates. We’re going to be under pressure for a lot of the game and we’ve got to deal with that.

“In a lot of the competition we’ve dealt with it. There are moments when we haven’t dealt with it, but we’re learning all the time to try and deal with those situations more consistently.”

Players to watch

Ireland’s full-back Hugo Keenan oozes class whenever he plays, simply put his team are better with him on the park. His all-around skill set is so useful for the Irish from how he patrols the backfield to jumping in the line to his aerial prowess. Keenan is one of the best in the world and expect him to be at his pure best yet again.

Caelan Doris is an incredibly hard worker and no matter the opposition he will inevitably get through a boatload of work on both sides of the ball. He will need to be one of the key drivers of physicality in the collision area to give his side that front foot ball.

Another key player in physical battle is Joe McCarthy who is learning every time he features at Test level. He will need to be at his brutal best as Ireland will try to set the tone early with a fast start. The second-row needs to empty his lungs on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Huw Jones has become increasingly important for Scotland in recent times as both a scorer and a creator. The centre’s ability to run penetrative lines makes him very useful and from there he always seems to find a pass or an offload. He is without his beloved centre partner Sione Tuipulotu in their famous ‘Huwipulotu’ pairing but Jones and Stafford McDowall have solid experience as a unit from their time at Glasgow Warriors.

If Scotland are to shock Ireland they need their superstars to stand up and especially the biggest of them all Duhan van der Merwe. The wing is absolutely lethal at times and can break the game open against any team. The giant speedster needs to be a menace and get his hands on the ball as much as possible even if he goes looking for it in the middle of the park.

Pierre Schoeman had a costly outing against Italy with his poor discipline part of a 10 point swing. There is no questioning his ability as a player especially in the carry and at scrum time; he will be desperate to make up for his efforts last week with a typically robust outing.

Main head-to-head

It is difficult not to include Finn Russell in the main battle considering how much influence he has on Scotland so this weekend’s head-to-head is Crowley v Russell.

Crowley has been ultra-impressive walking into the number 10 shirts as if he has 50+ caps. Perhaps the additional pressure created by lack of go-forward last weekend was a bit more difficult to deal with but he would have learnt. The Irishman is quality and will probably have better go forward in this one. Still, he has to outfox the maverick fly-half Russell. Best believe the young superstar has the tools to win this game for Ireland.

Then there is Russell, the chief architect of Scotland’s attack and a very important player so much so that when he has the space the team fires on all cylinders but the tax of that is if the fly-half is effectively shut down the side doesn’t have an effective fall-back. The number 10 is truly world-class and one of the best on the front-foot, he now needs to show maturity and leadership at packed Aviva if Scotland are to steal a result.

Prediction

Both teams will be better than last week with Scotland tightening up their discipline and trying to put pressure on the hosts. However, with a packed stadium on St Paddy’s weekend, the environment will be oppressive to travel to and Ireland will likely make a fast start. We expect Scotland to hold for a decent period but ultimately Ireland will go on to win by 14 points and claim the Six Nations.

Previous results

2023: Ireland won 22-7 at Murrayfield
2022: Ireland won 26-5 in Dublin
2021: Ireland won 27-24 at Murrayfield
2020: Ireland won 31-16 in Dublin
2020: Ireland won 19-12 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 27-3 in Yokohama
2019: Ireland won 22-13 at Murrayfield
2018: Ireland won 28-8 in Dublin

Teams

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Garry Ringrose

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Andy Christie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 George Horne, 22 Cameron Redpath, 23 Kyle Rowe

Date: Saturday, March 16
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

READ MORE: Six Nations permutations: How England can win more games than Ireland but finish second and a historic place awaits Italy

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